NBA Awards Predictions: 6th Man

Continuing my series of predictions on the various NBA awards for the upcoming season – I wrote previously about Most Improved Player – I now move on to 6th Man of the Year.

Unfortunately, I think this is the most misattributed award they give. It typically just goes to the leading scorer among nonstarters. While bench scoring is an important contribution, often times there is a reason that a prolific scorer is confined to the bench to start, whether it be porous defense of just a uncompromising commitment to getting their own shots, regardless of circumstances.

Too often the best players coming off the bench lack the stats to blow away the casual fan. For years Manu Ginobili was the best player in the league coming off the bench. Recently, the best has been Andre Iguodala. But both of them just play the game, filling whatever role their team needs them to on a given night, and not worrying about stats.

5. Andre Iguodala (Golden State Warriors)

Despite the above explanation of why Iggy is not the type that typically wins the award, he is still one of the best players who will be coming off the bench this season, and so I can’t dismiss him. The Thunder are going to win an insane amount of games, and smallball lineups with Iguodala in for Zaza Pachulia should dominate other teams.

Iggy was hurt a bit by the balanced bench effort the Warriors enjoyed last year, as far as an award like this goes. But with the Durant signing came some concessions to their depth, so Iggy will be more important than ever. Perhaps he even gets some good will for being overlooked last year.

No offense to Jamal Crawford, but if the Warriors offered Iggy for Crawford last year, the Clippers jump on that trade. I think that says something about value.

4. Brandon Jennings (New York Knicks)

Jennings is a guy whose stock has dropped so much since entering the league that he is now popularly viewed as underrated (meaning he is trending back towards overrated… but we’ll deal with that when we get there.)

There may be more questions surrounding the Knicks than any other team. A new coach, uncertainties about their offense, health concerns, and personnel fit all make the team difficult to predict. But starting PG Derek Rose is no longer a big minutes guy, so Jennings will get plenty of floor time for a team that, if things break right, could be a playoff team in the East.

Of course, Rose’s fragile knees are all that’s keeping Jennings from starting too many games to qualify.

3. Eric Gordon (Houston Rockets)

Assuming that new coach Mike D’Antoni keeps Patrick Beverley in the starting lineup – the smart move to balance Harden, though the offensive minded D’Antoni could buck conventional thinking – then Gordon will come off the bench. Gordon was once a rising star at the SG position, but several injury filled years later, he’s looking for a second life as an effective bench spark.

One thing Gordon can do is score. He has a strong build that helps him bulldoze his way to the basket, and he shot just under 40% from 3 last year. D’Antoni will love his offense, and on the high tempo, 3 point launching Rockets, Gordon could put up nice stats.

Of course, the question for every Rockets player is how well they play off Harden (read: watching Harden over-dribble for most the shot clock).

2. Enes Kanter (Oklahoma City Thunder)

Once everyone got over Kanter making max money when he is far too bad on defense to be a starting PF on a good team, we could appreciate that he is an effective player off the bench. Though he still remains a defensive liability, his offense is prolific. He is a terrific offensive rebounder, and has great touch around the basket.

This offseason the Thunder lost one of the most gifted scorers the league has ever seen, as well as their versatile power forward. While Russell Westbrook is ready and capable of taking over as the alpha dog (and arguably already had), there is still about 41 ppg to make up (the combined averages of KD and Serge Ibaka), plus less stability at the power forward position, and Kanter could be a key piece to OKC thriving post KD.

His mustache also backs up Steven Adam’s mustache.

1. Patty Mills (San Antonio Spurs)

Tim Duncan is gone, and with him ends the era of the Big 3. While Tony Parker remains on the team, and will even likely continue as the starter, he has been in decline the last 3 years. At this point, he is a low minutes player, and the high energy Patty Mills, who has been consistently improving as an all around player, should be running the show for the Spurs for 20+ minutes a night.

The Spurs offense should continue to evolve, as they no longer can rely on pick n rolls run by Parker and Ginobili. Their best offensive players are LaMarcus Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard, and even Pau Gasol, who all work best posting up. For them to be most effective, they need to be surrounded by floor spacers. While Mills doesn’t score in the lane like Parker, he is much better shooting from long range.

At his core, Mills is still primarily a bucket getter.

Also considered: Seth Curry (Dallas Mavericks), Will Barton (Denver Nuggets), Austin Rivers (Los Angeles Clippers), Kyle Anderson (San Antonio Spurs), Boris Diaw (Utah Jazz), and Joe Johnson (Utah Jazz).