Yesterday I covered the Eastern Conference in my quick notes (read here). Today I am looking at the Western Conference. Let’s get rolling. . .
Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks are involved in the a drastic game of catch-up. Dallas started the season rough, and looked like a team that was finally facing a legit rebuild after years of trying to keep a contending roster around Dirk. But they have quietly been creeping back into the playoff race in the not as deep as it use to be West.
After having a lousy win percentage of 21.4% in October, they brought it up to 41.2% in December, and then 57.1% in January. Now they find themselves only 3.5 games behind the 8 seed. It still seems like a long shot, but we should never count out the Nowitzki/Carlisle combo.
The biggest thing will be staying healthy. Their top five scorers have missed a total of 78 games. Nowitzki accounted for 26 of those, literally half of their games to this point. Also, their top rebounder and shot blocker, Andrew Bogut, has missed 27 games.
Denver Nuggets
If there is a word to describe the Denver Nuggets, it’s “balanced”. They have 7 players averaging double figures, 3 more averaging over 8 ppg, and none of them average over 20, yet they are 7th in the league in points per game. They don’t have a player averaging double digit rebounds, yet they lead the league in rebound percentage.
The Nuggets currently sit in the 8th seed in the West, but with 5 teams within 5 games of them (they are 6 games behind the 7th seed). Teams with depth like they have typically thrive during the regular season, because they don’t experience many dips due to fatigue, injuries, or individual slumps. The challenge will be sustaining success in the postseason, when teams shorten their rotations, and quantity matters less than quality.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are cruising to the best record in the NBA, to no one’s surprise. But that doesn’t matter. They went an NBA record 73-9 last season, but they didn’t win the title. That’s all that matters to them now. The regular season is just a formality; all that matters is getting back to the Finals and avenging last season’s disappointing finale.
Oh, and if you want some numbers on them, they are 2nd in the league in points per game, 1st in FG%, 1st assists, 1st in steals, and 1st in blocks. They are 1st in offensive rating and 2nd in defensive rating.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets have been a bit of a roller coaster this season. After having a stellar December, where they went 15-2, they regressed in January to 10-7. While there are numerous factors that likely contribute to the change, the team’s drop in 3 pt percentage (from 38% in Nov/Dec to 33% in Jan), lead by James Harden’s (about 37% in Nov/Dec to 31% in Jan), is a key one, considering they shoot a league leading 40 3s per game.
Still, the Rockets seem like legitimate contenders in the West running Mike D’Antoni’s offense, and Harden – who I have been plenty critical of in the past – looks like the favorite for MVP. We already knew he was an elite scorer, and he is 3rd in the league in points per game. What is surprising is his playmaking, as he has proven adept at reading defenses and zipping passes all over the court, resulting in a league leading 11.4 assists per game.
While the concern for this Rockets squad and for D’Antoni coached teams in general is defense, they rank middle of the pack (exactly 15th) in defensive rating. That’s good enough to give their offense the opportunity to win games for them.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are the same old Clippers. They are really good, but can’t quite keep up with the Spurs and Warriors. It doesn’t help that they always seem to have health issues: Blake Griffin has missed 20 games and Chris Paul has missed 16. They may be the most boring team to write about, because its been the same thing for several years now.
However, they are a still a fun team to watch. I think amidst the lack of playoff success, it has been lost how fun Blake Griffin is as a playmaker, how impressive DeAndre Jordan dunks can be, and how awesome Reddick running around screens and stopping on a dime for catch and shoot 3s is. And Chris Paul… well, CP barking at teammates and refs has always taken the enjoyment out of him as a player for me.
Los Angeles Lakers
After the Lakers got out to a surprising 10-10 start, they have gone 8-26. I wrote at the time that they wouldn’t be able to sustain that level of success, as eventually their inexperience and teams adjusting to what they’re doing would kick in.
Their biggest problem is that they just can’t stop anybody. They are in a dead heat with Denver for worst defensive rating in the league. The Lakers get up and down the floor, with the 7th fastest pace. They are 5th in the league in points per game, but they do it inefficiently, on the 3rd most field goal attempts per game, and they rank in the 20s in both field goal percentage and 3 pt percentage. On the other end, they give up the most points per game in the league.
The good news for Lakers fans is that the more they lose, the better chance they have of keeping their 1st round pick this year, which goes to the Sixers if it falls outside the top 3.
Memphis Grizzlies
Nobody talks about the Grizzlies as being a model organization, but they are obviously doing a lot of things right. Seriously, can you think of another team that is working on their 7th straight year of +.500 basketball, despite changing coaches twice and dealing with injuries to key players throughout that span, who gets less publicity than the Grizz?
There was a time when you could blame geography, but even Milwaukee and Minnesota get attention based on their exciting young players. The problem for Memphis is that their players are boring to casual fans. They don’t run up and down the court (28th in pace), and they don’t play above the rim (they have the fewest dunks in the NBA).
All they have is smart, skilled, disciplined players who know how to win. They win with defense, giving up the second lowest opponents field goal %. They don’t have the talent to keep up with Golden State or San Antonio in a 7 game series, but there is something to be said for a team that always competes no matter what, and is capable of winning against anyone on a given night.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are a lesson that it is really, genuinely hard to win in the NBA. They have tantalizing young talent, but their top three players – or at least their top scorers – are all 21 years old. It takes time to learn the game, and to know how to win. The Wolves have a great coach in Tom Thibodeau, and he will help accelerate their learning curve.
In the meantime, there is nothing special about their flaws. Perhaps just another year of experience, as well as another lottery pick, will have them making the jump just a little later than many were expecting.
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans have proven that sometimes it’s as hard to get a complementary star as it is the centerpiece. Anthony Davis is a monster. He is basically averaging 28 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.5 steals, and 2.5 blocks per game, while shooting 50% from the field. Yet despite his efforts, New Orleans is 12th in the West with a record of 20-32.
Jrue Holiday is a good player, but behind that the Pelicans have a slew of guys who shouldn’t be more than role players, probably not starters on a playoff team. What especially hurts if you’re a fan is the way Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson are playing key roles for a contender in Houston. Statistically they aren’t doing anything they didn’t do in New Orleans, except for staying healthy, which begs the question “Why didn’t they work with the Pelicans?”
Oklahoma City Thunder
I could try to get cute and find a unique stat to talk about the Thunder, but there is only one that matters: 30.9 points, 10.5 rebounds, 10.2 assists. Those are Russell Westbrook’s per game averages. He is leading the league in scoring while averaging a triple double. That is insane. There is nothing else that needs to be said about it.
Phoenix Suns
The Suns are in 14th place in the West. I imagine they have some interesting debates going on in the front office. For example, do they hold on to Eric Bledsoe, who is their best player, but at 27 may be exiting his prime by the time they gather enough talent to be in the playoff picture. Also, as nice as it is to have veterans around your young players, do you look to move guys like Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley, who could be serviceable role players for a contender?
In any case, they should be giving all the minutes they can to their 8 players under the age of 25, and figuring out exactly what they need with their high lottery pick this summer.
Portland Trail Blazers
I talked early in the year about how the Blazers have two stud offensive guards in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum (averaging 26 and 23.5, respectively), but they can’t stop other teams, and they don’t have the frontcourt bulk to keep opponents off the glass. They still rank 23rd in rebound percentage, and 25th in defensive rating.
They currently sit at 9th in the West, just a game behind the 8th seed. This is a team that I hope is active at the trade deadline. There are enough good big men in the league that their isn’t much of a market for them, meaning the Blazers may be able to get one for a good deal.
Sacramento Kings
If the Hornets are the example of why Philly was justified in doing what it did under Hinkie, then the Kings are the example of why teams should be hesitant to go that route. Here are the Kings top draft picks the last five years:
2012: Thomas Robinson #5 pick – Career averages of 4.7 points and 4.8 rebounds. Was traded halfway through his rookie season.
2013: Ben McLemore #7 pick – Minutes have dropped to career low this season. Averaging 6 ppg while shooting 40% overall and 30% from 3.
2014: Nik Stauskus #8 pick – Traded to Philly after 1 year in Sacramento, where he is improving, but still only averaging 9 ppg.
2015: Willie Cauley-Stein #6 pick – Has seen his minutes drop from 21 a game his rookie year to 13 a game this year.
2016: Marquese Chriss #8 pick – Traded on draft night for #13 and #28 pick and rights to a European player. With the picks they got Georgios Papagiannis and Skal Labissiere, who combine to average less than 4 points in about 10 minutes per game.
The moral of the story is that drafting is an inexact science. Sure, you could criticize the individual picks, but at the time, Robinson, McLemore, Stauskus, and WCS were all defensible picks. But when you fail to improve your team with high draft picks several years in a row, that becomes a problem.
Oh, but they did pick a multiple time all-star in the 2011 draft, and with the 60th pick of all things. He just happens to play in Boston now.
San Antonio Spurs
Despite all the great coaching jobs that are happening in the NBA, I think Gregg Popovich might be my front runner for COY. Before the season I pointed out that this Spurs team is going through more change than people are realizing. Not only did they have to deal with the obvious adjustment of Tim Duncan’s retirement and incorporating Pau Gasol in his place, but they have been overhauling their offense and defense.
With Tony Parker and Manu aging, the Spurs are depending less on pick n rolls. They are 19th in the league in pick n roll frequency. Now, their offense often runs from the inside out, through touches to LaMarcus Aldridge and Gasol. They rank 4th in post up frequency.
One thing that hasn’t changed is that they still maintain plenty of movement in half court offense. They rank 26th in Pace, yet 2nd in distance traveled on offense per game. They have constant motion, and are selective about their shots. They rank 27th in field goal attempts per game, but 2nd in field goal percentage.
As if the offense wasn’t impressive enough, they are tied with the Warriors for the top defensive rating in the league.
Utah Jazz
While so many were wrong in predicting a big leap for the Timberwolves, as many were correct in predicting the rise of the Jazz. They currently have a record of 33-19, putting them 4th in the West.
There is usually a simple formula to gauge if a team is a legitimate title contender: do they rank in the top 10 on offense and defense? Well, Utah ranks 3rd in defense, which is of little surprise considering their personnel. Offense is their big question. Yet at present, they are 10th in offensive rating. The Jazz are for real.
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