Rookie of the Year is typically about hope more than anything. After all, the draft system is set up so that the best prospects end up on the worst teams. So while good rookies seldom contribute to more wins, they give fan bases hope for the future as they develop.
However, that is not to say that all the best rookies are on the worst teams. Sometimes through trades, good teams draft high. And better still, sometimes players are undervalued and fall in the draft to where the good teams are picking.
Differentiating what is most impressive for a rookie can be difficult. On the one hand, rookies on bad teams tend to get more opportunity, and therefore produce better stats. But more opportunity isn’t always a knock, as it also means more responsibility. It can be difficult to produce when the talent around you is lesser. On the other hand, there is something to be said about a rookie who fills a role on a winning team and gives them perhaps the little something extra they need. There is a different kind of responsibility when you’re playing in games that matter, no matter what role.
As an unfortunate side note, I have to point out that this summer’s #1 overall pick, Ben Simmons, would have topped my list, but he suffered an acute fracture in his foot that will keep him out for a few months. Since the Sixers won’t be playing for anything, they won’t rush him back. So I am leaving him off the list altogether.
Here is my list, counting down to my favorite to win the award. . .
5. Buddy Hield (New Orleans Pelicans)
The recipe is simple here: the Pelicans desperately need more outside shooting, and Buddy is a really good shooter. I’m not worried about his percentages during summer league and preseason, which haven’t been great. Players have to adjust to the pace and pressure of the NBA, the deeper line, and fewer touches to get a rhythm. But Hield had range in college, and is a hard worker. I have no doubt that he’ll find his shot eventually, it’s just a question of when it will come together for him.
Still, let’s not assume that Buddy is only a shooter. While that is the main thing that makes him so appealing, he isn’t a one dimensional player. He has decent enough size and athleticism to compete defensively, which is the shortcoming that keeps most marksmen off the floor. He may not hurt teams off the dribble, but as long as Anthony Davis is healthy, the offense will run through The Brow. Hield could be a welcome compliment, and could carve out a Danny Green like role.
4. Malcolm Brogdon (Milwaukee Bucks)
This is an unconventional choice, considering Brogdon was a second round pick. But there’s reason to be optimistic here. At age 23, he is old for an NBA rookie, and he has the mature physique to show for it (he played 4 years in college, plus an injury redshirt year). His senior year he won both Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year in the ACC.
So how does a guy like that drop to the second round? Well, NBA teams see a 23 year old and assume they are about as good as they’re going to get, while they are tantalized by the potential of the 18/19 year olds, not to mention the extra 4 years of basketball life they have in them. On top of that, Brogdon isn’t an elite athlete, nor does he have an elite skill. But Brogdon has a high basketball IQ, a well rounded game, and will be ready to contribute this year. And with the way Jason Kidd likes his team to play defense, he’ll fit right in, able to guard multiple positions in their switch everything schemes.
3. Jaylen Brown (Boston Celtics)
I have successfully moved on from being befuddled by the Celtics picking Brown with the 3rd pick. Now I’m embracing him as one of our guys. While I think there will be a big learning curve for Brown over the next couple of seasons, I do think there are things that he can do in his rookie campaign.
Obviously, Brown’s athleticism is what got him drafted so high. He should be able to compete on defense, and on a team that will hang their hat on that end of the court, he’ll fit right in among their deep rotation of perimeter hounds. While he isn’t gifted enough offensively to run any offense through him, what he can do is drive the ball hard at the rim when the ball may find him. I expect him to lead all rookies in free throw attempts, provided he gets the minutes I expect he will.
The recipe for winning the award is simple for Brown: be a legit contributor to one of the top teams in the East. If the team’s record is impressive, that will outweigh some of what he may lack in traditional stats.
2. Brandon Ingram (Los Angeles Lakers)
The Lakers, no matter what aspirations they may communicate to the contrary, have no expectations of being good this year. Now that Kobe is gone, they will finally focus on developing the young talent that they do have, even if their main goal is to entice free agents so they can return to relevance sooner rather than later.
Ingram is going to get every opportunity to succeed from day one. The Lakers don’t have anyone they can count on for 20+ points a night, and so he’ll be asked to help them get points on the board. Ingram isn’t the most ready rookie, but his development will be accelerated out of necessity. The question is whether the Lakers will win even a respectable amount of games so that voters would feel comfortable rewarding Ingram, less they attribute his production to empty stats.
1. Joel Embiid (Philadelphia 76ers)
Yes, Embiid was drafted 2 years ago. But thanks to injury, he has yet to make his NBA debut, so this becomes his rookie season. Obviously, we all proceed with cautious optimism about his health. But if he stays healthy, then Embiid looks like a strong candidate for ROY.
Like Ingram, he’ll be playing for a team that will give him all the opportunity he can handle. Embiid has great size, and provided his injuries haven’t slowed him, great mobility. He may not be great at team defense, but he ought to be a decent rim protector on athleticism alone. And offensively, he’ll be a nice option to have diving to the basket for lobs. It’s unclear just how talented Embiid is, or if his feel for the game will be up to speed, but for raw potential, he’s still the cream of the crop.
Also considered: Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets). . . its a weak class of rookies, at least from the early outlook.
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