Everybody loves offense. But real basketball fans also appreciate good defense. I’ll admit that watching Stephen Curry quickly pull a deep 3 off the dribble is exciting. But I also love watching Avery Bradley mirror a ball handler down the court, putting in their head the fear that one misstep will surrender the ball into Bradley’s hands.
Traditionally, the award has favored big men. It made sense, since big men loomed near the basket, making them relevant on nearly every defensive possession as the final line of defense. But in the modern age of versatile, switching defenses, the perimeter defender who can guard multiple positions has emerged as a priority. Bigs are still hugely important, but now the field for the award is more open than ever before.
Here are my predictions for possible winners, counting down to my favorite for the award…
5. Andrew Bogut (Dallas Mavericks)
Amidst all the fanfare and the heaps of praise lavished on the Warriors last year, too little of it found its way to Bogut. While Draymond Green received a justified amount of attention for his incredible defensive versatility, which allowed them to play small, there were also times when the defense needed Bogut’s toughness and rim protection.
Bogut has become something of a lumbering giant thanks to injuries, but what he lacks in agility, he makes up for with IQ. Bogut knows how to read the court, and plays angles spectacularly. No one pushes him around, and even if he doesn’t rack up blocks, he deters opponents from quality looks in the lane, leading opponents to shoot a low percentage around the basket.
Of course, Bogut’s health is always the concern. But I think he’ll have a little extra motivation to prove himself after being discarded by Golden State in their pursuit of Durant. He was awesome in the Olympics for Australia, and I expect him to show how important he was for the Dubs, but he’ll do it for the Mavs.
4. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Charlotte Bobcats)
MKG has struggled with injuries. (It’s really unfortunate how many times I’ve written about players struggling with injuries the last couple days.) And when he has played, the hideousness of his jumper received more attention than anything else. Well, he has been working on his jumper, and while it may not be great, hopefully it will be serviceable enough to make him a factor on offense, and let the attention be paid to his defense.
MKG has the tools the be an elite defender, at 6’7″ and athletic. But more importantly, he has the desire and toughness to be an elite defender. He has the ability to smother opposing players, like he’s doing a Kawhi Leonard impression. The Hornets have been a good defensive team, despite not having terrific defensive personnel. If they have another great year on that end, he will be the standout from the group who may enjoy individual praise.
3. Dwight Howard (Atlanta Hawks)
This pick may seem like a couple years past reality, and indeed its been a long 5 years since Howard 3-peated the award. But Dwight has been languishing in difficult situations the last several years, though he admittedly wasn’t free from blame. Still, the drama surrounding his last two stops has painted him so negatively, that objective evaluation of his talent has been overlooked.
Dwight isn’t the dominating athlete he once was, but he is still a good one. And Mike Budenholzer is going to have the Hawks playing good defense, with Howard anchoring the middle of it. It’s still uncertain how much Howard will be involved in the offense, and whether it will affect his effort on the other end. But if Howard is happy back home in Atlanta, and commits to protecting the paint, he could have a redemptive season.
2. Rudy Gobert (Utah Jazz)
Gobert has drawn a lot of attention for his defensive talent, both because of his impressive rim protection, and because of catchy nicknames like Stifle Tower and French Rejection. But Gobert is massive, at 7’1″, and has proven to be a top notch shot blocker.
The Jazz were a tough defensive team last year, ranking 8th in defensive rating, and 2nd in opponents points in the paint (in large part because Gobert). They only project to improve considering their young core, and another year in coach Quin Snyder’s system. If the Jazz earn their way into the playoffs behind a staunch defense, Gobert will receive a lot of consideration for the award.
1. Kawhi Leonard (San Antonio Spurs)
I thought about choosing Gobert for the top spot, citing Kawhi’s continually increasing responsibility on offense, as well as leadership status as the franchise cornerstone, plus voter fatigue. . . but then remembered he is the consecutive winner of the award for a reason.
Kawhi is an elite athlete, with long arms and great hands. He has exceptional instincts that allow him to move with an offensive player like he knows exactly what the offensive player is going to do. To top it all off, he has the determination to lock down the best players in the league. As unassuming as Kawhi’s personality may be off the court, he is a fierce competitor on it.
By substituting Pau Gasol for Tim Duncan, there will be even more pressure on Kawhi to slow teams down at the point of attack. If anyone is up to the challenge, it’s Leonard.
Also considered: Avery Bradley (Boston Celtics), Paul George (Indiana Pacers), DeAndre Jordan (Los Angeles Clippers), Marc Gasol (Memphis Grizzlies), Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks), Karl-Anthony Towns (Minnesota Timberwolves), and Anthony Davis (New Orleans Pelicans)
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