NBA Awards Predictions: Most Valuable Player

Finally, after going over the various awards, we arrive at the pinnacle of individual recognition offered by the league. There isn’t much to say other than that these are the best players in the NBA, the guys who control the court with superior talent and acumen. This is manifested in statistics, but more importantly it can be felt as you watch the game. Deep contested 3’s, viscous dunks, and chase down blocks can be worth much more than what is represented on the scoreboard. You see it in the opponents when they realize they can’t do anything about it.

But none of it matters if personal production doesn’t result in team wins. No one on a team with less than 50 wins is going to get this award.

Here are my predictions of possible winners, counting down to my favorite for the award…

5. James Harden (Houston Rockets)

Two years ago Harden was runner-up for MVP as the Rockets earned the 2 seed in the West. Last season, the Rockets plummeted into a mess, fired their coach mid season, limped into the playoffs, and Harden was mostly known for videos of his matador defense. But Harden wasn’t any less talented last year, just as he isn’t this year.

This season Harden will be running the show for a Mike D’Antoni offense, putting the offensively gifted Harden’s full repertoire on display. The Rockets have put some talented offensive pieces around him, and they will put up points in a hurry. Harden could finish this season with some gaudy statistics. The only question is whether their defense will be competent enough to make them real contenders.

There’s also the question of how Harden handles the 7 seconds or less offense when he usually dribbles for at least 7 seconds.

4. Kawhi Leonard (San Antonio Spurs)

For some reason, it’s still hard to think of the Spurs as Kawhi Leonard’s team, even though it was already that last season. But with Duncan retired, and Parker and Ginobili aging into lesser roles, the spotlight is increasing on Kawhi. It will be interesting to see if he becomes the emotional leader for the team, even if he isn’t inclined to be a vocal one.

Kawhi has progressed nicely as an offensive player. Last season he averaged 21 points per game, on 50% shooting and an amazing 44% from 3. While he hasn’t been much of a setup man, that isn’t a problem in the Spurs system, as they’ll rely heavily on player movement, particularly off of post-ups by LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, and even Kawhi himself.

But of course the main thing that distinguishes Kawhi is his smothering defense. With fellow wing Danny Green the only other above average defender in the starting lineup, Kawhi’s defense will be more important than ever. If he helps lead the team to another 50+ win season in its first post-Duncan season, which is highly likely, he’ll be in the conversation for MVP.

Kawhi is now the face of the league’s best run franchise.

3. LeBron James (Cleveland Cavaliers)

Here’s always the debate around the MVP award: is the purpose of the award to acknowledge which player had the best season, or which player is genuinely the best when push comes to shove. Of course, often the two coincide, but there has always been room to argue when anyone else has won the award during Jame’s prime.

James is a highly skilled player, but still the thing that makes him capable of dominating is his unrivaled physical gifts. His combination of size and speed is unmatched. Add to it a high basketball IQ, and its no wonder he has won the award 4 times.

However, the reservation is that James is getting older, and has little motivation to push himself too hard in the regular season. The Cavs feel confident they can breeze through the East, and proved to themselves last year that they can win the Finals even without home court advantage. LeBron will likely play a notch below top gear during the season, though even that will yield impressive results. Just maybe not enough to earn the top spot.

LeBron turns 32 this season, but with so many miles on him, who knows how long his prime will continue.

2. Russell Westbrook (Oklahoma City Thunder)

Westbrook is probably the most popular pick to win the award, since KD’s departure leaves him as the lone focal point of the Thunder offense, and with a chip on his shoulder to prove he can be the man. But he is also one of the most polarizing players in the NBA. For all the positive that his hyper-aggressive style produces, there are undeniable negatives.

The question will be just how controlled Westbrook will be. There is no doubt that he will be fully unleashed to attack at will, no longer worried about catering to Durant, and he will put up numbers. But can he see the value of slowing down at moments, and elevating his teammates by putting them in position to succeed? Also, can he focus his energy more on defense, which should be – and once was – a strength of his, to lock down opposing point guards.

There are lot of questions about just how this season is going to go for Westbrook and the Thunder. But one thing is for sure, it’s going to be a lot of fun watching the most electrifying athlete in the NBA try to blitzkrieg the whole league.

Russ will attempt to dunk on everyone… all at once.

1. Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors)

Isn’t it weird that going with the 2 time defending MVP is an unconventional pick? Look, I get it. The Warriors added another top 5 player, and he’ll have to relinquish some of his production to accommodate. But besides that, I’m not sure that a back-to-back MVP has ever been more dismissed. Perhaps much of it has to do with his lackluster showing in the playoffs, which I still attest is due to injury. But even more than that, I think the things that Curry does are so spectacular, and his appearance is so unassuming, that even though he has done it consistently 2 years straight, people still believe his game is somehow unreliable, like he was riding a hot streak that was due to end at any time.

But I object to that thinking. Curry, at full health, is the most skilled player in the league. His team is going to win an absurd amount of games. He’ll put up points, and will likely do it on ridiculous shooting percentages. He’ll rack up assists, because teams simply won’t be able to cover all the weapons he’ll be surrounded with, especially if he beats his man. And on the occasions that teams hang close to the Warriors, it will be Curry who is given the ball down the stretch, even if its in a pick n roll with KD, because its Curry who has the superior playmaking skills.

Yes, its possible that Curry could sit so many fourth quarters that his stats will take a hit. And yes, its possible that voters will penalize him for playing with stellar teammates. But to me, Curry will still be the engine driving arguably the league’s most destructive team ever assembled.

Underestimate Curry at your own peril.

Also considered: Paul George (Indiana Pacers), Anthony Davis (New Orleans Pelicans), and Carmelo Anthony (New York Knicks)